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New IPCC attribution statistics are distorting observational evidence 

London – 27 July: A new paper from the Global Warming Policy Foundation finds that the IPCC’s recent shift in methodology has led to misleading claims about changes in weather extremes.
The review, from physicist Dr Ralph Alexander, finds that IPCC claims that many of these weather extremes are increasing significantly are largely unsupported by observational evidence.

According to Dr Alexander:

“On almost every kind of extreme weather, with the possible exemption of heatwaves, the evidence for significant changes is scant. But the latest IPCC report has introduced novel ‘attribution’ statistics and now insists that things are getting worse. It’s yet another case of scientists trying to scare the public into compliance.”

Dr Alexander’s paper looks at:

  • Droughts
  • Floods
  • Hurricanes
  • Tornadoes
  • Wildfires
  • Hot and cold extremes
  • Coral bleaching

He concludes that:

“The mistaken belief that weather extremes are worsening because of climate change is more a perception, fostered by media coverage, than reality. The IPCC’s new statistical method is playing an unworthy part in bringing this sorry state of affairs to pass.”

GWPF invited the Royal Society and the Met Office to review this paper, and to submit a response to be published as an appendix to it. No reply was received.

Ralph Alexander: Extreme Weather: The IPCC’s Changing Tune (pdf)

Extreme Weather report (Cover image)