We are keen to receive review comments for our new paper which is now available for open peer review (pdf).
Steel 2050 – Revisisted
The feasibility of decarbonisation and Net Zero for steel and the economy in total
This paper considers the topic of the steel industry’s approach to reducing CO2 emissions on the road to a decarbonised economy and society.
Submitted comments and contributions will be subject to a moderation process and will be published, provided they are substantive and not abusive.
Review comments should be emailed to: harry.wilkinson@thegwpf.org
Closed review comments on GWPF publications can be found here.
The deadline for review comments is 11 December 2024.
Ron Beddows
The late Dr Rod Beddows had an extensive and long experience as a Strategy Consultant, Corporate adviser, financial adviser and Company Director. This experience covered clients and businesses in over 30 jurisdictions. As a British citizen and largely resident there he was also involved in many different manufacturing and service sectors within the UK.
He established, led and owned boutique advisory firms in both Strategy Consulting and Corporate Finance.
His clients ranged from technologically innovative start-up ventures to the largest established corporates, in both the developed and emerging economies. In Corporate finance he led the external advisory team, for Rio Tinto, for the world’s largest iron ore project in Guinea for 2 years.
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Reviews
Dr Roger Newman FRSC CEGB
Firstly I was impressed by the scope of the paper and my comments are mostly concerned with presentation.
I don’t think I questioned the technical points but a large number of facts were presented. The reader would have benefited from a very brief summary or conclusion at the end of each section.
Abbreviations and acronyms were properly explained but there were so many that I had to constantly refer back to the glossary of terms.
In the section on batteries there was a statement that performance may well be improved in the future. However there maybe scientific and safety limits on such improvements.
In the Glossary of terms does Al refer to aluminum metal or aluminum oxide.
The names of elements begin with a lower case letter.
The best typo of all in a paper about steel was to refer to lithium-iron batteries rather than lithium-ion batteries.
Donal O’Callaghan BE (Elec), PhD
This monograph provides an insight into energy and decarbonisation options in the Iron and Steel (I&S) field. The author invites the reader to accompany him on a learning journey while negotiating a pathway from awareness of global warming to appropriate policies and approaches with regard to carbon emissions reduction in the I&S industry, and by extension, in the manufacture of non-ferrous metals where relevant to green energy, such as those metals needed for the manufacture of battery electric vehicles and their batteries.
Using his expertise in mining and steel manufacturing, the author outlines the challenges in meeting emissions targets in the manufacture of the wide range of I&S products that are in demand, while using whatever green or low emissions energy sources are suitable, without becoming uneconomic. A life-cycle approach is essential for assessing emission reduction, and when this is done it shown that some current policies fail to stand up. The author also shows that there are other international issues, some of greater urgency than global warming and therefore it is of critical importance to openly and transparently appraise priorities according to need.
The monograph is written in plain language and it makes informative and enjoyable reading.
I would hope that the final version will have a list of references/bibliography.
Some specific comments:
p1 Prologue
p1. para beginning “My task”.
Clear statement of purpose. “What I seek is to understand the policies and approaches taken to change in response to claims of global warming and its consequences, and to assess the practicality, reasonableness and feasibility of these approaches and can they achieve their aims.”
This is a long sentence… break it up? e.g. What I seek is (i) to understand the policies and approaches taken to change in response to claims of global warming and its consequences, and (ii) to assess the practicality, reasonableness and feasibility of these approaches and (iii) to ask if the approaches can they achieve their aims.
p3 Introduction and Scope
p4 1st para “the belief that the climate is warming…”
I am pedantic about the term “the climate” – I would prefer “climate”, “climates” or “the climate system”, as it is a fundamental misconception that there exists a universal climate, when there are at least 30 different climates. This misconception facilitates another misconception, that of a global average temperature, or “temperature anomaly” as having some useful climatic significance. I’m only stating my prejudicial view here – feel free to ignore.
p4 para beginning “This AGW”
“This AGW, despite CO2 being an essential plant nutrient and signs of more extensive plant growth on the planet, is perceived as having predominantly, indeed overwhelmingly and rapidly developing, negative consequences for the capacity of the planet to sustain human life.” simplify complex sentence
“now annual jamborees and in their 27th 29th iteration”
p5 end. “The automotive sector and the changes being encouraged and often legally enforced there [] are a comprehensive illustration of the topics” [seems to be missing a preposition?] …. punctuation needed
p6 para beg “Beyond and”
“and beginning to be considered in a calmer and more balance[d] and”
para beg “We may be”
“1600 scientists” [update the number]
p8 Decarbonization of Iron and Steel production
This section clarifies the enormous challenges in moving toward NZ and D, and lays out the most realistic pathways that can be envisaged, leading to the conclusion that much longer timescales, together with large investments and perhaps more modest targets, are needed to develop and implement new technologies. We come face-to-face with the limitations of GH, much touted as a panacea by politicians The author’s knowledge and experience comes to the fore.
p8 end “Bio Carbon is possible but there is disagreement as to how carbon positive or even neutral, that is as claimed by its enthusiasts.” [punctuate better]
p10 para beginning “In the long term but certainly decades” – reword this
para beginning “All solutions”
mtpa; bntpa. First use needs to be spelled out or else in glossary.
p12 Green Steel Finished Product
I was not aware of the complex and labyrinthine chain of steps between prospecting and manufacture of an end-product in the I&S industry. This is all laid out plainly in this monograph, e.g. the evaluation of ore that is needed for establishing its suitability to various processes, the large investment in a mine before any ore is produced, the investment in transportation infrastructure, etc. with consideration given to power requirements and emissions at every step and to life-cycle analysis.
p15 Green Electricity
In this section, the challenges of powering I&S with GE and the likely roles of the more promising electricity-generating technologies are outlined.
p15. I regard the following as key pieces of text:
“Large scale investments in the grid for transmission and distribution from origin to use are required. In the UK the grid operator has estimated that to meet the government’s planned requirement for wind power and with its location substantially off shore but use widely distributed across the country, will entail capacity expansion costing 32 times all grid investment over the last 30 years. It is reasonable to question both the feasibility and desirability of this commitment of funds; a question I return to in a later section of this monograph. This growth in capacity and extension of its reach is already generating intense resistance as it destroys landscape, property values, farming and much else across the country in the case of the UK.
“Intermittency is a particular problem for all users and especially for industrial ones such as EAFs as the name suggests, and challenging for mines whose locations are determined by geology not for policy convenience; they are most often far distant from the customer’s use of the mined product, as witnessed by Simandou. A long break in supply to an EAF could be a major disaster if unplanned as it could lead to cooling to the point of solidification of a furnace’s content. For an underground mine the workers could be trapped with ventilation and air flow failing.”
p16. “Beneficiation, smelting, refining and processing into usable finished product requires energy in the form mostly of gas or electricity, the latter because of location often being by diesel generators.”
p20 Innovative Structural Implications for Iron & Steel
One thing that is explained here is the scope for restructuring and integration when new technologies are introduced, e.g. combining DRI, HBI and EAF. Again, significant capital is required. A vision is outlined covering national and international scales.
p20. “As I write this [“,” needed] Tata Steel Europe..”
p22 “At such locations ore from whatever source could arrive, be blended as necessary, processed into HBI, the form of DRI suitable for transportation, or even further into steel where customers desire it.” Better punctuation needed.
p24 The Automotive sector and Decarbonization
This section draws attention to the mostly unknown emissions and hidden energy burdens in producing the metals for BEVs and their batteries, and also questions the feasibility of producing some of the metals in the required volumes.
p25 “The steel and other materials in the ICE construction are likewise well known, [and] vary only within…”
Here is a very significant observation on p 26:
“I think it reasonable to deduce[d ] that the NZ status of each metal is very unclear and highly variable but is substantially more negative than Steel. This must be factored into the NZ status of EVs but is not in the minds of the public and is little considered in the policies of regulatory authorities, politicians and others promoting the BEV as the vehicle of the future. For them it is too complex and difficult to assess.”
p28 The Political Economics of Decarbonization and Net Zero
Socio-political approaches to managing change are outlined in a most interesting manner, with reference to centralised control versus market-led models, the failed experiment with Marxism, and its aftermath today.
I suggest minor simplification of some complex sentences, without wishing to cramp the author’s style. For example:
p29 line 3. “Back in 2013, more than ten years ago when I was finishing Steel 2050, the steel industry’s context meaning the environment of geo-political, social, ideological and economic conditions, which provided its operating environment – its political economics – were quite settled.” [complex sentence.]
p33 The future shape of global steel demand
This section provides a fresh insight into the interplay of international economics with production and market for steel and other metals needed for green energy.
p34 end. “China is already experiencing a decline in exports of around 25% in H1 2023 …” Update if possible or change tense.
p37 Funding and executing decarbonization ambitions
There are profound conclusions in this section:
p40 “The simple message from all this is that economic growth is the only way the ratio is reduced, the bond markets will not come to the rescue to the level required to meet NZ and it will not work to seek to impact anything by increased taxation, which itself is at a 70 year high of 38% of GDP.”
Similarly, p41 “Positive economic growth from new green technology jobs is exactly what the proponents of NZ argue is going to happen; experience already disproves it.”
p42. Another significant conclusion “The conclusion must be that even China cannot find the capital to fund the shift to a green economy: there is no need to be concerned about their commitment to this ambition as it is, as with ourselves and Europe, undeliverable.”
p44 Wise observation regarding the root of our immigration problems. “I suggested that we in this West had a choice; we could facilitate the rapid growth of poorer economies to make it attractive for people to live there or expect them to move in large numbers to share or expropriate our wealth.”
p38. HMG, HS2 – add to glossary
p38 para beginning “Yet the acknowledged”.
“These can be supplemented by storage” I’m not clear if storage refers here to storage of backup fossil fuel or green energy storage. If the latter, a working technical solution has not appeared. Clarify.
p38 end. “supported subsequently by succeeding administrations and [ ] lay behind the calculations” – complex sentence
p41 “NZ cannot be funded in the UK and this [is] probably true in ..”
p42 “[W]ith the historical…”
p44 Crises, Catastrophes and Choice
This section puts the perceived AGW crisis in context with other crises that we know about, while discussing priorities and the competition for funding.
p44 war in the Ukraine, Gaza, and the Yemen. [update to Lebanon]
p46. Another observation of critical importance “Bank of America has estimated that the world would run out of pure water by 2040 at the current rate of increased usage. The impact of the crisis would be little short of catastrophic, will be difficult to avoid and is more forecastable than AGW.” and “All these potential consequences are similar to those predicted by the claimed AGW crisis and its expected catastrophe. The difference being that water conditions are much more knowable and predictable and modellable than climate.” Touché.
p47 para beginning “If we” “This something being technological development to increase efficiency of use, or replacement in use, or processing developments to make ‘new’ reserves appear as lower grades [?] could now be utilized, new discoveries, etc.” Something missing in sentence?
p48. Apt summing up “Crises are not in short supply; some are more pressing and better founded in their existence than AGW. Similarly catastrophes are a common currency of politics and political agitation.”
p49 Section Some overarching considerations
I agree with the thrust of the paragraphs beginning with “As appreciative systems are not scientific” – indeed this is of central importance – could the argument be stated more precisely?
p50 para beginning “In this way”
“how Copernican and then Newtonian theories were ‘proven’ until the anomalies accumulated and someone showed that ‘the emperor had no clothes’”
It is not clear to me what exactly is referred to here as being an appreciative system. Is it referring to a helio-centric theory of the universe? Or Newton’s way of integrating faith and reason? clarify?
p50 para beginning “As appreciative”
“In the Anglo-Saxon intellectual tradition we must rely on common sense and reasonableness, and a sense of the human place in the universe and the limits and scope of human agency and its causality”
“Anglo-Saxon intellectual tradition” is ambiguous and could refer to medieval times, which does not seem to be what the author intends – or maybe the author infers that it goes back to medieval times? Or are we referring to the Enlightenment? define “common sense” ? but in fairness you come back to it in referring to Jim Skea.
A well-formulated question: “So, the question arises; does AGW and its related catastrophic theorizing seem reasonable regarding man’s agency and potential scale of impact on the climate,…”
p51 “It is obvious that this narrative has been dominated by increasing catastrophism and hysteria for the decade since my book was released.” Agreed – very clear.
“Simultaneously a group of 1600 scientists…” (now beyond 1900 scientists .. Don’t forget to update the number close to publication).
“hysteria and extremism of any kind is not compatible with the search for rationally justifiable and sound, reasonable and well-reasoned responses to challenges.” – well said.
“science is neither a popularity contest nor a matter of consensus.” – very true
p52 “In the commonly accepted Popperian logic of scientific proof there can be no climate science…” It’s a strong statement and I can’t disagree with it. (I wonder if there is a broader sense in which “science” includes things that can be measured, and relationships that can be demonstrated in a laboratory, even if that only amounts to a tiny element of a climate system? but that may be a separate issue).
p53 “Covid was treated as a closed system with well understood causal relationships between variables when it was not; it was an open system with poorly understood structures.” A good point and a useful analogy with climate.
A reasonable conclusion: “We have to accept an appreciative system of the climate first and speculate theories from it and not over interpret them for practical purposes.”
I have no difficulty with the remainder of the monograph.