Tale Of Two IPCC Leaks
Climate science has turned into a political battleground. That’s made abundantly clear, once again, in this tale of two IPCC leaks.
Are Earth’s weather patterns and sea levels being radically altered because of the undeniable rise of human-caused CO2 emissions into the atmosphere?
It’s a question of science. The last thing it should be is a question of politics.
Yet, that is exactly what it has become. Climate science has turned into a battleground between big government liberals and small government conservatives the world over.
Politics is driving the climate science debate (yes, there is one), not science.
That’s made abundantly clear, once again, in this tale of two IPCC leaks.
Assessing Climate Change
The International Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) is a United Nations body created back in 1988 to assess the effect, if any, of rising CO2 concentrations in Earth’s atmosphere.
It has published four assessments. The first was in 1990. The fourth in 2007. The 5th assessment – AR5 – is set to be released beginning next month.
In each previous assessment it was concluded that human-caused CO2 emissions are the overwhelming cause of radical climate change.
It recommends steps governments should take to stop or reverse its effects. Those steps (cap and trade) are not trivial. Globally, the cost will likely be in the 10s of trillions of dollars.
For Mother Earth, the stakes are high.
AR5 Leak One
Leaked AR5 graph compares IPCC predictions with Earth’s actual temperature
Last December, IPCC “expert reviewer” Alec Rawls pre-released the entire text of Working Group One’s second order draft of the IPCC fifth assessment report (AR5).
Everyone in the world was given access.
That is a forbidden no-no. Rawls probably didn’t get invited to the IPCC’s Christmas party.
Reactions came swift. The IPCC cried foul:
The unauthorized and premature posting of the drafts of the WGI AR5, which are works in progress, may lead to confusion
The draft makes it clear that drafts are not to be cited, quoted or distributed and we would ask for this to continue to be respected – IPCC official statement, 12/14/2012
IPCC supporters immediately expressed horror that such a dastardly crime could be committed by an IPCC critic bent on destroying its credibility.
On the politically conservative side, however, IPCC skeptics and AGW detrators poured over every word, every syllable, studying the science in WGI. It didn’t take long to find major flaws.
The graph above shows each of the IPCC’s previous four temperature rise statistical forecasts (colored patterns) compared to the Earth’s actual average yearly temperature (black bars).
It’s obvious that the IPCC’s assessments of temperature rise – the fundamental basis for all AGW theory – is off. When 2012′s global temperature gets added it’ll be worse. Earth’s real temperature at the end of 2012 will put it at the very bottom of the IPCC 3rd assessment report statistical significance boundary and below that of all the others.
Put bluntly, scientific jargon converted into layman’s terms says:
‘The IPCC just proved all its temperature rise forecasts are wrong!!’
It gets worse. From the pre-release of AR5, the situation for methane rise (a more potent greenhouse gas than CO2) is even further below the IPCC’s forecasts.
Leaked AR5 graphic proving the IPCC predicted methane rise is flat out wrong
Perhaps the pre-released temperature rise and methane rise graphs are what the IPCC means by “may lead to confusion”.
AR5 Leak Two
Two weeks ago the AR5 report was leaked again.
This time was quite different.
This time, no one admitted to being the source of the leak.
This time, no full text report was posted for folks to read.
This time, no official IPCC condemnation about “may cause confusion” or that it should “not to be cited, quoted or distributed” prior to release was forthcoming.
This time, no charts, graphs or scientific measures of any kind documenting the science behind AR5 got released. None. Zero. Zip. Nada. Nyet, Keine. Méiyǒu.
This time, the leak simultaneously went directly to selected IPCC-friendly blog and news media outlets.
This time, conservative leaning science and news sources were excluded.
Quoting the final draft report, the New York Times is leak representative:
It is extremely likely that human influence on climate caused more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010
There is high confidence that…
Odds are at least 95 percent that humans are the principal cause
– “Climate Panel Cites Near Certainty on Warming“
Justin Gillis, New York Times, 8/18/2013
The 95% certainty that humans are the cause of it all, which has been bandied about, is particularly suspect. The IPCC’s own data from the first leak proves that its forecasting of both temperature and methane rise are totally wrong.
Based on that, logic argues that the probability of certainty should go down, not up. Earth’s temperature hasn’t risen in going on 16 years.
In the second leak, though, there is no possible way to verify or refute the AR5 findings.