New Paper: Carbon Dioxide Lags Global Temperature

  • Date: 21/02/13

Changes in global atmospheric CO2 are lagging 11–12 months behind changes in global sea surface temperature and 9.5–10 months behind changes in global air surface temperature. Changes in atmospheric CO2 are not tracking changes in human emissions.

Global and Planetary Change Volume 100, January 2013, Pages 51–69

The phase relation between atmospheric carbon dioxide and global temperature

Ole Humlum a, b

Kjell Stordahl c

Jan-Erik Solheim d

a) Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, P.O. Box 1047 Blindern, N-0316 Oslo, Norway

b) Department of Geology, University Centre in Svalbard (UNIS), P.O. Box 156, N-9171 Longyearbyen, Svalbard, Norway

c) Telenor Norway, Finance, N-1331 Fornebu, Norway

d) Department of Physics and Technology, University of Tromsø, N-9037 Tromsø, Norway

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2012.08.008, How to Cite or Link Using DOI

Abstract

Using data series on atmospheric carbon dioxide and global temperatures we investigate the phase relation (leads/lags) between these for the period January 1980 to December 2011. Ice cores show atmospheric CO2variations to lag behind atmospheric temperature changes on a century to millennium scale, but modern temperature is expected to lag changes in atmospheric CO2, as the atmospheric temperature increase since about 1975 generally is assumed to be caused by the modern increase in CO2. In our analysis we use eight well-known datasets: 1) globally averaged well-mixed marine boundary layer CO2 data, 2) HadCRUT3 surface air temperature data, 3) GISS surface air temperature data, 4) NCDC surface air temperature data, 5) HadSST2 sea surface data, 6) UAH lower troposphere temperature data series, 7) CDIAC data on release of anthropogene CO2, and 8) GWP data on volcanic eruptions. Annual cycles are present in all datasets except 7) and 8), and to remove the influence of these we analyze 12-month averaged data. We find a high degree of co-variation between all data series except 7) and 8), but with changes in CO2 always lagging changes in temperature. The maximum positive correlation between CO2 and temperature is found for CO2 lagging 11–12 months in relation to global sea surface temperature, 9.5–10 months to global surface air temperature, and about 9 months to global lower troposphere temperature. The correlation between changes in ocean temperatures and atmospheric CO2 is high, but do not explain all observed changes.

Highlights

► Changes in global atmospheric CO2 are lagging 11–12 months behind changes in global sea surface temperature. ► Changes in global atmospheric CO2 are lagging 9.5–10 months behind changes in global air surface temperature. ► Changes in global atmospheric CO2 are lagging about 9 months behind changes in global lower troposphere temperature. ► Changes in ocean temperatures explain a substantial part of the observed changes in atmospheric CO2 since January 1980. ► Changes in atmospheric CO2 are not tracking changes in human emissions.

 

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Fig. 5. 12-month change of global atmospheric CO2 concentration (NOAA; green), change in global surface air temperature (NCDC; blue), land surface air temperature (NCDC; yellow) and ocean surface air temperature (NCDC; red dotted). All graphs are showing monthly values of DIFF12, the difference between the average of the last 12 months and the average for the previous 12 months for each data series.

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