NOAA’s “Hottest Month” Claims Are Unscientific
NOAA’s claim is unscientific, irresponsible and seems to be designed to create a deliberately political and alarmist message.
It’s not that I’m particularly prescient, but today’s headlines, prompted by the latest NOAA press release, rather substantiates the point I was making last week.
The Telegraph (and no doubt many other outlets) report:
Driven by exceptionally warm ocean waters, Earth smashed a record for heat in May and is likely to keep on breaking high temperature marks, experts have said.
May’s average temperature on Earth of 15.54 degrees Celsius was the warmest since records began in 1880, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
So let’s recap:
NOAA’s own figures give an error margin for their figures of +/- 0.07C. When this is allowed for, May 2014 statistically joins an eight-way tie as the hottest May, all since 1998. The other years being:
1998, 2001, 2003, 2005, 2010, 2012, and 2013.
Statistically, their claim of the “hottest month” does not hold water.
We should also bear in mind just how sparse their temperature data coverage really is.
Finally, we can take a look at what the satellites have to say.
RSS show May 2014 as only the 6th warmest, while on UAH it ranks 3rd. Both datasets show May 1998 as by far the warmest month.