London, 23 September: In a briefing paper issued today, the Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF) reveals that a significant problem has been identified in the UK’s official UKCP09 climate predictions.
Nic Lewis, an independent climate scientist, has published research that shows that
because of the way the predictions are prepared using the Met Office’s computer climate model, they are bound to predict fairly high warming in the UK whatever observational data are fed into the process.
The UK climate predictions programme informs decisions to invest billions of pounds in climate change adaptation measures across the public and private sectors. The inherent warm bias in the predictions means that much of this spending is probably unnecessary.
Andrew Montford, the author of the GWPF briefing paper, said:
“There are potentially billions of pounds being misspent on the basis of these predictions. The government has little choice but to withdraw them pending a review of the way they are put together”.
GWPF chairman Lord Lawson is calling for an independent panel of climate scientists and statisticians to review the UKCP09 predictions.
Full briefing paper here (PDF)