IPCC Promises Global Warming Will Recommence … Some Time Soon
Global warming ‘hiatus’ unlikely to last: draft U.N. report
The 127-page draft, and a shorter summary for policymakers that is due for release in Stockholm on September 27 after editing, say factors including a haze of volcanic ash and a cyclical dip in energy emitted from the sun may also have contributed to a slower warming trend.
Explaining what the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) draft calls a “hiatus” in warming is vital for governments, which have promised to agree a U.N. deal by 2015 to limit temperature rises, largely by shifting from fossil fuels. France called on Friday for bolder EU cuts in greenhouse gases and said it would halve its own energy consumption by 2050.
The fact that temperatures have risen more slowly in the past 15 years despite rising emissions of greenhouse gases has emboldened skeptics who challenge the evidence for man-made climate change and question the need for urgent action.
But the IPCC draft reports do not project any long-term respite. Instead, they forecast a resumption in the warming trend that is likely to cause ever more heatwaves, droughts, floods and rising sea levels.
“Barring a major volcanic eruption, most 15-year global mean surface temperature trends in the near-term future will be larger than during 1998-2012,” according to the 127-page Technical Summary dated June 7 and obtained by Reuters.
Temperatures are likely be 0.3 to 0.7 degree Celsius (0.5-1.3 Fahrenheit) higher from 2016-35 than from 1986-2005, it says. The reports by the IPCC, updating an overview of climate change from 2001, are the main guide for government action.