Climate Models Predicted The Opposite Of What Has Caused Record Cold US Weather

  • Date: 16/02/14
  • The Hockey Schtick
An article published [in the Christian Science Monitor on 10 February]Winter weirdness: Is Arctic warming to blame? notes “this winter has brought unseasonable warmth to Alaska, frigid temperatures to much of the Eastern US, and more drought to California. The jury is still out on whether a warmer Arctic is behind the extreme weather.”
“When persistent weather patterns have brought drought or heat waves or repeated invasions of cold air to usually mild locations in winter, these links to the Arctic have become a go-to explanation among many commentators and policymakers.”But is there any credibility to such claims?
The author interviews several climate scientists active in this debate including Dr. Elizabeth Barnes, who has previously debunked claims that ‘Arctic amplification’ causes extreme weather, as well as dueling hyper-alarmist Jennifer Francis, and others, demonstrating there is trace to no credible scientific evidence supporting such claims.

Of particular note, the article points out that climate models actually predicted the opposite pattern to occur with the jet stream drawn north, with fewer jet stream dips, and no change in jet stream blocking:

“These [modeling] studies suggest that a warming Arctic will draw the jet stream’s average track north. Blocking patterns will decrease. Moreover, the models indicate no “robust” decrease in the jet stream’s speed, notes Elizabeth Barnes, a climate scientist at Colorado State University in Fort Collins who focuses on the jet stream’s behavior and the factors affecting it. To be sure, the models could be wrong, she acknowledges. But when different teams with different models converge on the same answer, that inspires more confidence in the result.”

[...] Furthermore, the article notes “Long-term swings in Atlantic sea-surface temperatures, known as the [natural] Atlantic multidecadal oscillation, appear to have the same effect on the jet stream’s meanders and blocking patterns that Arctic warming and sea ice are purported to have.

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